When Wayne Rooney strolled into the media room at St. Andrews Stadium on November 6th, the atmosphere was palpable. A footballing icon, and legend of the English game, was taking over in B9.
As he addressed the media for the first time, he made promises to the expectant fanbase:
“We will create a winning culture here with an identity that gets Blues fans on their feet… My job is to elevate the club to the next level and I can’t wait to get started. I know what the expectations are and our job is to deliver.”
Yet, despite his two decades of professional experience within the game, Rooney was to learn that in 83 days, a lot can change in football.
Little more than 13 weeks after he was appointed, the former England captain found himself out of a job, with a managerial reputation in tatters at the age of 39. He had taken the club from a play off position to the edge of relegation zone.
So where on earth did it all go wrong for Rooney and Birmingham City?
Rooney’s appointment in the first place was controversial: John Eustace had kept the side above relegation last season despite the team being tipped for the drop. And the Blues were the division’s surprise package after 11 games of the current season, sitting in sixth after a brilliant derby victory over West Bromwich Albion, in front of a raucous St. Andrews.
But Eustace did not have the backing of the entire fan base, says Richard Stanley of the BCFC Trust:
“Some thought the style too negative and unexciting. The new owners wanted to introduce a more dynamic, attacking style of play.
“Some fans were calling for John Eustace to go earlier in the season. But a majority of people thought Eustace was doing a reasonable job and at the time of his departure, the team were ‘punching above their weight’.”
So when Garry Cook and co. decided to sack Eustace, it was because they did not see him as the man to provide the ‘No Fear Football’ that they had outlined as a necessity for the club moving forwards.
That man was supposed to be Wayne Rooney.
By utilising a variety of data metrics we can assess whether this so-called ‘No Fear Football’ was something that Rooney delivered, and perhaps discern whether the pressure to implement this very philosophy burdened his tenure in the West Midlands.
Despite an abject performance in Rooney’s first match against Middlesbrough, in which Blues recorded their lowest shots total of the season so far (just three), fans remained patient.
With England’s second highest goalscorer in charge, surely there would be a surge in Blues’ attacking play under Rooney.
Although the first few matches saw poor results, the fixtures were tricky, with Rooney’s first four games all coming against sides in the division’s top six.
A win against bottom of the table Sheffield Wednesday garnered Rooney his first three points in charge, and was seen as a launchpad to breed confidence amongst players and coaching staff.
The following match, away at Ewood Park, was seen as a turning point.
Blues again saw a lack of possession (38.5%), but when they had the ball they recorded season-high figures for shots on target (26) and shot creating actions (46). As seen in the chart, these were staggering jumps from data earlier in the season.
However, Blues failed to kick on, as an emphasis on off-the-ball pressing saw a further nose-dive in possession statistics: Blues only had greater possession than the opposition twice under Rooney — half of what Eustace achieved in fewer games.
This style resulted in a lack of control in games where Blues were expected to dominate the ball (Rotherham, Plymouth and Stoke) and, more pressingly, a desperate lack of creativity going forwards.
Despite a supposed ‘No Fear’ philosophy, Blues put the ball in the back of the net far less under Rooney (1.36 goals per 90 under Eustace vs 0.93 per 90 under the latter).
And this wasn’t due to bad luck, or even poor finishing, as Blues’ xG tally under both managers this season matched exactly.
Yet the bluntness in attack under Rooney compared to Eustace was reflected in their drop in expected goals per 90 under the new management (1.35 vs 0.93).
It wasn’t just the poor attacking data that was a cause for concern.
Most football fans can forgive an unexciting style of play, as long as you keep the ball out of your own net — especially Blues fans who have been almost entirely coached by defensive-minded managers.
Yet Blues conceded far more under Rooney than Eustace as well.
The data shows a sharp increase in goals conceded per 90 (1 vs 2), expected goals conceded (1.02 vs 1.73 per 90), and perhaps most significantly, a clear increase in individual errors leading to opponent shots (0.36 per 90 vs 0.47 per 90).
The increase in individual errors was indicative of a previously successful squad suddenly crippled by a style of play that they were simply unable to implement.
Their manager and the board’s idea of ‘No Fear Football’, as reflected by the data, didn’t live up to its billing.
In Rooney’s final home game against Bristol City, Blues failed to register a single shot on target for the first time all season, and managed a measly, season-low, seven shot creating actions.
The only fear inside St. Andrews that day was coming from the players — daunted by a style of play they could not get to grips with — the incredulous fans coming to terms with being plunged into an eighth relegation battle in ten years, and perhaps Rooney himself, who despite his short career in management, must have known that his days in the Second City were now numbered.